Two Wars, 50 Elections: Economy Faces Growing Geopolitical Risks

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Increasing volatility is likely to see the coming year as ongoing military conflicts and economic uncertainty influence voting in national elections around the world.

By Patricia Cohen

Reporting from London

The attacks on very important shipping traffic in the Red Sea Strait by a determined organization of militants in Yemen – the result of the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza – inject a new dose of instability into a global economy already facing emerging geopolitical problems. Tensions.

The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East is the latest in a series of unpredictable crises, to which are added the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which have descended like bear’s claws on the global economy, diverting it from its course and leaving it scars.

As if that wasn’t enough, further volatility awaits us in the form of a wave of national elections that may have far-reaching and long-lasting repercussions. More than two billion people in some 50 countries, including India, Indonesia, Mexico, South Africa, the United States and the 27 countries of the European Parliament, will go to the polls. In total, participants in the 2024 Olympic elections account for 60% of global economic output.

In democracies, elections are held at a time when distrust in government is rising, the electorate is deeply divided, and there is deep and persistent anxiety about the economic prospects.

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