UK: Deporting migrants to Rwanda a high-stakes gamble for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak

The British bill aimed at deporting migrants to Rwanda approaches a delicate passage, Tuesday January 16, for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, under the threat of seeing his camp torn apart around this controversial text. Intended to respond to the objections of the Supreme Court, which blocked a previous version of the project in November, the text passed a first obstacle in Parliament in December. Things are now getting tough for Rishi Sunak, who has placed at the heart of his migration policy the expulsion to Rwanda of migrants who arrived illegally on British soil.

It is a high-risk gamble at the start of an election year in which the Conservatives fail to reach the ballot box and continue to lag behind a score of issues against the Labour opposition led by Keir Starmer. A YouGov ballot published on Monday even suggests that the Conservatives, who have been in power for 14 years, could face an electoral debacle worse than when Tony Blair came to power in 1997.

As the text goes through committee on Tuesday and Wednesday, the right wing of the Conservatives is on the prowl to try to reinforce a text that is too watered down in their eyes through amendments, supported by some 60 MPs, according to the British. press. . Some Conservative MPs, for example, absolutely need the option of recourse for deported immigrants.

After facing harsh complaints from his former Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, and the resignation of his Secretary of State for Immigration, Robert Jenrick, Rishi Sunak will most likely now face backlash from the Vice President. But too radical a hardening of the text risks being detrimental to moderate conservatives.

Given that the amendments are unlikely to be adopted, it is during the upcoming vote in the House of Commons that things are most likely to get really complicated, for Rishi Sunak, if the right wing of the party realises the risk of revolt it has been stirring. for weeks. But according to the Times, the prime minister is in a more important position than meets the eye, as “Conservatives who oppose the text in its current form face a choice: support a text that won’t work, or vote with Labour to secure the death” of the bill.

Rishi Sunak said on Monday that he had “spoken to all [his] colleagues”. “I know everybody’s dissatisfied — I’m dissatisfied with the scenario — and they need to see an end to the legal merry-go-round,” he said. told reporters a stopover in Essex, showing his determination to carry out the mission. Announced in April 2022 under Boris Johnson, it was never implemented. A first plane was blocked at the last minute by a decision of a European court, then the British courts, even the Supreme Court, declared the transfer illegal.

In an attempt to save the project, the government signed a new treaty with Rwanda. It is supported through this new bill that defines Rwanda as a third country and prevents the return of migrants to their countries of origin. It also proposes not to apply certain provisions of UK human rights law to evictions, in order to restrict legal remedies.

Nearly 30,000 migrants illegally crossed the English Channel in 2023 in small boats, well below the record of 45,000 in 2022. Five migrants died over the weekend while trying to reach a boat in frigid waters. According to French authorities, 12 migrants died last year trying to cross the English Channel, one of the world’s busiest straits.

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