The Russian army went to war in Ukraine in February 2022 with around 2,000 tracked howitzers. In 34 months of brutal combat, the army has lost no fewer than 800 of these self-propelled artillery pieces to Ukrainian action. Hundreds more have been sidelined by a shortage of fresh gun barrels.
At the same time, the production of new howitzers is far from the demand for assembly. And Russia’s once-considerable stockpile of vintage Cold War howitzers would likely have dwindled in part as engineers scour the stockpile for intact weapons, or intact portions of otherwise rusty ones. arms.
It’s apparent the Russians are running low on mobile artillery. And that helps explain why, for the second time in six weeks, North Korean self-propelled howitzers have been spotted rolling through Russia on train cars. Pyongyang has become a major supporter of Moscow’s artillery campaign.
This is the most generous way to describe the close relations between the Russian artillery corps and North Korea’s secret arms industry. In less generous terms, Russian forces are becoming dependent on North Korean weapons.
The North Korean-made M1989 howitzers fire 170-millimeter shells. That’s “an unusual caliber for the Russians,” Estonian analyst Artur Rehi noted, as most Russian guns fire 122- or 152-millimeter shells. North Korea has shipped potentially millions of these rounds to Russia to keep Russia’s pre-war guns firing away at a combined rate of potentially 10,000 or more shells a day.
Until this winter, North Korea provided artillery ammunition in calibers that Russia could in principle produce itself. The Russians challenge production capacity, not capacity. If Russia and North Korea faced off diplomatically, Russian weapons could still fire, although not as frequently.
This is becoming as more and more North Korean M1989s arrive at the front. The M1989 is the only 170 millimeter howitzer in the world. It is conceivable that all the factories that generate the 100-pound cartridges for the giant cannons are in North Korea. – even if it has no value. Iran also acquired M1989. Every M1989 that reaches Russia likely reinforces Russia’s dependence on North Korea.
More than a year ago, the Ukrainian research organization Frontelligence Insight recorded the arrival of the first million North Korean projectiles to Russia. The source of the North Korean projectiles “raises questions about whether Russia provided money to the cash-strapped North Korean regime or shared other military technologies,” Frontelligence Insight explained at the time. What exactly was Pyongyang getting in exchange for all this ammunition?
Now we know. Moscow will “likely transfer” missile and submarine generation to Pyongyang, accelerating the North’s longstanding naval efforts, according to U. S. Navy Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of the U. S. Indo-Pacific Command. -Korea will expand and deploy silent submarines armed with nuclear missiles. Tipped intercontinental ballistic missiles.
This is an unbalanced industry that largely favors North Koreans. The Russians gained artillery. It is possible that the North Koreans will simply discharge underwater nuclear weapons. But what options does Russia have, as its depleted artillery corps becomes increasingly North Korean?
If Pyongyang doesn’t get what it wants, it could well disable an increasing proportion of Moscow’s most important weapons.
Sources:
1. The army 2022
2. Oryx
3. Hautmarsé
4. Special Kherson Cat
5. Arturo Rehi
6. Frontelligence Insight
7. Break the defense
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