A heavy bombardment by Ukrainian drones attacked the Millerovo air base in Russia’s Rostov oblast on Monday. Russian gunners opened fire into the sky early in the morning. The explosions shook the base.
The targets may have included the few Russian air force Sukhoi Su-25 attack jets that still stage from the airfield for attacks on the 800-mile front line of Russia’s 34-month wider war on Ukraine, 100 miles to the west. There’s also a military academy at the base.
In reality, the express objective does not matter. The goal of deep raids in Ukraine is not to destroy fast buildings or equipment. According to Tatarigami, founder of the Ukrainian research organization Frontelligence Insight, “the purpose is to constantly increase the war burden for Russia” by sowing fear, expanding dangers and disrupting operations.
That works. As Ukraine has deployed increasingly resilient deep-attack munitions: American-made Army Tactical Missile System rockets, French-made SCALP-EG and Storm Shadow cruise missiles and British missiles and a variety of locally produced drones, rockets and cruisers. Missiles: The Russians responded by moving their forces away from the front line.
Just seven months ago, the Russian air force installed up to 305 fighter jets within just a hundred miles of the front line in Ukraine. When the Ukrainian military began dropping ATACMS, which spread grenade-sized submunition loads over a wide area, the Russians panicked and began withdrawing many of the fighter jets, redeploying them to bases just beyond the ATACMS’ 200 miles of diversity.
Last year, commercial satellites spotted dozens of Su-25s and Sukhoi Su-30 fighters at Millerovo. This fall, the same satellites observed just a handful of Su-25s left at the base.
The excellent evacuation of fighter jets would likely have saved valuable aircraft structures from destruction from the recent drone bombing. But this does not mean that Ukrainian attacks on the Rostov region airfield are futile. The raids put the Russians in a time-distance dilemma.
Operating from bases up to 400 miles from the front line, rather than just 100 miles, limits how Russian fighter jets can fly in a given week, and also limits how long they would possibly remain over the front during its less common flights. Departures. It is true that the Russian Air Force retains its aircraft. But doing so makes planes less useful.
It’s a smart calculation for Ukraine. And the estimates are growing as Ukrainian munitions penetrate deeper into Russia. “Ukraine is strengthening its capacity to increase the war burden for Russia,” Tatarigami writes.
Sources:
1. WarTranslated
2. Tatarigami
3. Mark Krutov
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