A fire at a Russian warehouse destroyed components for hundreds of Shahed-136 kamikaze drones according to a report yesterday on Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (GUR) official page. They do not say how the fire started, but this is one of many such fires in Russia caused by sabotage, incendiary drones or other means. The report states that the warehouse contained the components for 400 Shaheds, all of which were destroyed, suggesting detailed knowledge of the event.
The report also mentions that the components included thermal imaging cameras – a capability not previously known, which, in combination with Starlink units also found on Shaheds, suggests Russia has developed a more capable and dangerous version of the attack drone.
Shahed-136 is a one-way attack drone developed in Iran, with a wingspan of two meters and a warhead of approximately 100 pounds over six hundred miles. (Diversity of up to 1,500 miles has been claimed, but there is no evidence for it. )The piston propeller engine gives it a cruising speed of about 185 km/h, which earned it the nickname “moped” or “lawnmower”.
Initially imported from Iran, Russia turned to production and then production of Shaheds in a gigantic new factory in Alabuga, 1,000 km east of Moscow, endowed with an intelligent workforce. market: a combination of local academics and, interestingly, African women tricked into coming to Russia. with promises of employment in the hotel industry.
From zero in 2022, Russia has steadily ramped up Shahed production and is now turning out some two thousand one-way attack drones each month according to Ukrainian intelligence. It is worth noting that some of the drones reported as Shaheds may be decoys or smaller low-cost Russian or Chinese drones.
The continued drone onslaught has inflicted huge damage on Ukraine, with three quarters of the electricity infrastructure destroyed by drone and missiles attacks. But the defenses have steadily become more capable, and in November brought down some 95% of the attacking drones with gunfire, missiles, and, increasingly, electronic warfare jamming.
But as it evolves, so does the offense.
The Shaheds we see today are generations ahead of those first detected in Ukraine just over two years ago. The developments come with “stealth” coatings that make them harder to detect, a series of new warheads adapted to express targets, as well as knowledge modems with SIM cards to transmit knowledge about Ukraine’s cellular network.
Ukraine is now deploying cellular fighter drones armed with automatic anti-aircraft guns to shoot down. . . [ ] Shaheds.
The original Shaheds had critical satellite navigation and the Russian-made versions were upgraded with a military-grade Komet navigation unit that resists jamming and spoofing. However, coverage presented through this unit appears to have been affected, as the Ukrainian Air Force reports that an increasing number of Shaheds are being shot down using electronic warfare or redirected to Russia. It is not surprising that Russia is interested in the Shaheds, which do not depend on satellite navigation at all.
Previously some Shaheds had been seen with basic video cameras. The GUR report that they now use thermal imaging cameras may indicate that they are operating a visual navigation system that works at night, recognizing terrain features in the dark by their thermal signatures. Optical navigation is becoming increasingly common as jamming compromises GPS. Earlier this month, U.S. makers Red Cat announced a partnership with Palantir to give its tactical quadcopters the capability, showing that the approach is feasible even for the smallest drones.
This ability would make Shaheds immune to interference. But the cameras are there for some other reason.
Images from a downed Shahed claimed to show a Starlink satellite communications unit.
In September, Ukrainian news outlet Defense Express reported the discovery of crashed Shaheds fitted with Starlink satellite communications. This provide long-range communications, allowing the Russian to track their drones in real time and determine which ones are downed before they reach their targets, as well as re-routing them in flight.
Obviously the Russian use of the U.S-made Starlink is highly illegal, but many posts on social media apparently show Russian troops taking delivery of Starlinks, likely through agents in third-party countries.
Combined with a thermal camera, the satellite link would allow the operator to accurately target express targets, that is, those with an apparent thermal signature, such as force generation equipment. Using real-time communication, Shaheds can attack moving targets, such as ships, and precision targets, such as air defenses. They may also evaluate the effect of past strikes.
Taking down Shaheds after they are launched is a completely defensive approach and there is always the risk that some will get through. Even at 95% success, dozens of Shaheds still find their targets each month, and many more crash into inhabited areas. The best solution is to knock out the threat ‘left of launch,’ that is , destroy them on the ground before they become a threat.
That is why the Alabuga fireplace is important. The site has already been attacked by Ukrainian drones. Whether the fire was started by agents inside the facility, a long-range sabotage group, or stealth attack drones, it suggests a need to focus more on combating Russian drones at the source.
Ukraine is particularly expanding its long-range strike arsenal, with a combination of new attack drones, “rocket drones” and cruise missiles; The difference between drones and cruise missiles has become invisible. These weapons will only have a strategic effect if they can be directed where they will do the most good. The fact that the GUR now knows exactly which buildings at the Alabuga site deserve to be attacked suggests that there will be more fires and explosions in the coming months as drone warfare becomes increasingly vital.
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