The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) is attracting American attention after Elon Musk subsidized it last week, amid its growing popularity in the European nation. Newsweek analyzed the chances of winning the upcoming German elections.
Musk’s message that “only the AfD can save Germany” came after the collapse of the German coalition government, when Chancellor Olaf Scholz cast a vote of confidence, triggering snap elections in February.
Only the AfD can save Germany https://t. co/Afu0ea1Fvt
Meanwhile, Germany is still reeling from an attack on a Christmas market in Magdeburg, where Saudi Taleb Al Abdulmohsen allegedly drove his car into the crowd, killing at least five other people and injuring more than two hundred last Friday.
The AfD has become the first far-right party to win a national election in Germany since World War II, when it won Brandenburg in September.
While the majority of Germans see the party in a negative light, the AfD’s current 19 percent favorability rating is the highest recorded in the Pew Research Center’s eight years of surveys.
At the same time, other German parties have noticed a drop in their popularity: The popularity of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) fell from 67% in 2022 to 39% this year, according to the Pew Research Center. recent fall of the government.
“There is almost 0% that the AfD will win first position in the legislative elections on February 23 and an even smaller percentage that it will win an absolute majority,” said Eric Langenbacher, senior researcher and director of Society, Culture and Politics. the American-German Institute program told Newsweek.
“Of course, there are always the ‘unknown unknowns’ and the consequences of the recent attack on the Christmas market in Magdeburg in the deeper electoral context of widespread concerns about migration and integration might boost the AfD a little,” he added.
The party is currently polling at 19 percent, according to Politico’s most recent general election survey, updated on December 16.
While the AfD is ahead of the SPD (17 percent), it is substantially behind the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU), which is polling at 31 percent.
Prediction marketplace platform Polymarketplace estimates that the AfD has a 14. 3% chance of winning, while CDU/CSU has an 85% chance.
Although these figures make it look unlikely that the AfD would outright win Germany’s elections on February 23, the party seems set to gain more federal influence than it has ever had.
AfD co-chair Alice Weidel talks about Germany’s “big parties” (the CDU/CSU alliance and the SPD) to work with her party.
Earlier this year he said: “We ask the CDU/CSU and the FDP to, despite everything, do their civic duty and reach an agreement with us. After all, we are millions of voters. “
Both parties have ruled out governing with the AfD. Before the September elections, in the face of the AfD’s growing popularity, CDU leader Friedrich Merz reiterated this commitment: “Our word is valid. We probably wouldn’t do it. “
Newsweek contacted the CDU, via email, to ask if this is still the case.
Langenbacher said: “Post-war Germany has had coalition governments, so the question is whether the established parties would agree to govern with this rival party.
“Currently, that answer is no because of an informal firewall against working with the AfD. It is possible eventually that the desire of the CDU/CSU to govern conservatively will erode this norm, but this will not happen yet in 2025.”
The party gained help for its anti-immigration and pro-border security stances after the 2015 refugee crisis. It promotes national security and identity, opposing globalism and multiculturalism.
But it has been classified as far-right and is lately being monitored through Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the BfV, for suspected extremism, which the AfD says is a political way to discredit the party.
In January, a media report revealed that some figures from the party attended a meeting in which extremists discussed the deportation of millions of migrants, including some with German citizenship and this triggered mass protests against the far-right.
One of the AfD’s best-known figures, Björn Höcke, was accused this year of a Nazi slogan; he denies the accusations.
Supporters of the AfD are concerned about the German economy, dissatisfied with the state of the country’s democracy and have a negative view of the European Union, according to the Pew Research Center.
Newsweek contacted the AfD, via email, for comment.
Updated 12/24/24, am ET 03:36: This article has been updated to include Eric Langenbacher’s commentary.
Jordan King is a Newsweek reporter founded in London, UK. It focuses on human interest stories in Africa and the Middle East. She has extensively covered the civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo, police brutality and poverty in South Africa, and gender issues. founded violence around the world. Jordan joined Newsweek in 2024 from The Evening Standard and has previously worked at Metro. co. uk. She graduated from Kingston University and also worked in documentaries. Jordan can be reached by sending an email electrónico. j. king@newsweek. com. Languages: English.