Mysterious drone incursions continue to raise alarm across Europe, with the German government recently reporting several sightings near sensitive military installations. In response, Germany has brazenly hinted that Russia was possibly responsible for those incursions and has taken unprecedented steps to strengthen its defense measures against drones.
More recent incidents and similar unexplained activities at NATO facilities and critical infrastructure have heightened considerations of possible espionage or sabotage attempts.
On Sunday, January 12, German authorities reported that nearly a dozen mysterious drones had been seen near Manching Air Base in Bavaria, close to Ingolstadt.
“The deployed police officers came across up to ten drones flying over the area,” the Bavarian state police said in a statement. “Despite extensive search measures and the intervention of a police helicopter, it is possible that the guilty user or users simply cannot be identified. “
The officials added that in mid-December, several other drone incursions took place over the Manching air base and the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) in Neuburg an der Donau.
Similar unexplained drone incursions were also reported over the U.S. Ramstein Air Base in southwestern Germany and at facilities belonging to German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall and chemicals giant BASF.
According to German media, several drones above the Ramstein air base, headquarters of the US Air Forces in Europe and NATO’s Allied Air Command, fly at more than one hundred miles per hour and are obviously not fans of drones. drones.
These incidents echo delayed reported drone sightings last year across the continental United States, specifically along the East Coast near New Jersey and New York, as well as near the Royal Air Force bases at Lakenheath, Mildenhall and Feltwell in eastern England.
U. S. officials say the wave of mysterious drone sightings over the United States last year is largely due to misidentification of traditional aircraft. They also ruled out the option that the sightings were paintings by a foreign adversary, adding that the events posed no threat to national or public security.
“At this time, we don’t know that those activities originate from any foreign entity or are paintings of an adversary,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said at a Dec. 11 press conference.
By contrast, the German government has been frank in suggesting that a state actor is most likely to blame for recent waves of mysterious drone incidents in its airspace.
Intelligence, defense and law enforcement officials have pointed to Russia as the most likely culprit. The government says the target of such raids is likely to be espionage or the preparation of acts of sabotage.
Although no definitive link to Moscow has been established, the National Criminal Investigation Office and the Central Office for Combating Extremism and Terrorism announced on Monday, January 13, that recent drone sightings over military installations in Bavaria were being investigated. as acts of espionage through Russia.
“As it is ruled out that military installations and arms partners or corporations are targets of espionage in the context of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, extensive search measures have been carried out to identify the drone pilots,” the statement said. Bavarian state police in a statement. statement.
In August 2024, drones were repeatedly spotted flying over nuclear power plants, land-based liquefied natural gas terminals, and chemical plants near Brunsbüttel, Germany, along the North Sea coast.
The German media outlet Bild reported that investigators suspect Moscow’s involvement in the incidents near Brunsbüttel. Citing unnamed law enforcement sources, Bild claimed that Russia is believed to have used Orlan-10 drones launched from a civilian shipping vessel in the North Sea.
The STS Orlan-10 is a fairly unsophisticated and inexpensive fixed-wing UAV used extensively by Russia for reconnaissance and intelligence gathering. According to the U.S. military’s Operational Environment Data Integration Network (ODIN), the Orlan-10 has a ferry range exceeding 370 miles and a maximum speed of just under 100 mph. During reconnaissance missions, it typically operates at altitudes of 3,000 to 5,000 feet, though it has a service ceiling of up to 16,000 feet.
The Orlan-10 can autonomously fly pre-programmed waypoints and has a stay-in-flight capability of up to 16 hours, making it well suited for extended operations.
According to reports on the ongoing war between Moscow and Ukraine, Russia deploys several Orlan-10 drones in groups, with each of them being used for complementary purposes such as symbol collection, electronic warfare, signals intelligence, and knowledge transmission.
The reasons why investigators suspect that Russian Orlan-10 drones were to blame for the August drone raids near Brunsbüttel are still unclear. However, many mysterious drone sightings reported in Europe and the United States in recent years bear striking similarities to the characteristics and flight patterns of the Orlan-10 drones, adding to their tendency to operate in groups.
At first glance, the US government has largely downplayed the significance of the mysterious drone sightings over the United States. Meanwhile, over the past year, German intelligence and defense officials have expressed serious concerns that Russia is contemplating acts of sabotage against critical Western infrastructure and NATO military sites.
In November, he revealed that a series of fires at Leipzig airport in Germany stemmed from a plot through the Russian military’s intelligence agency, the GRU, to plant hidden explosives on planes shipping to the United States and Canada.
“The aim of the group was also to check the transfer channel of these packages, which were ultimately going to be sent to the United States and Canada,” Polish prosecutor Katarzyna Calow-Jaszewska told the BBC.
In the last several months, Russian intelligence agents have been accused of being behind arson attacks in Poland, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Germany, Lithuania, and Latvia.
In July 2024, U.S. military bases in Europe were put on a second highest level of security alert, Force Protection Condition (FPCON) “CHARLIE.” According to DoD regulations, FPCON CHARLIE “applies when an incident occurs, or intelligence is received indicating some form of terrorist action or targeting against personnel or facilities is likely.”
During the heightened alert, U. S. army body of workers stationed in Europe were prohibited from dressed in uniforms out of doors the base, and foreign nationals hired at the amenities were denied entry.
“US. The European Command is taking steps to strengthen the surveillance of our military, their families and our facilities,” Pentapassn deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said at a press conference. “This was done with wonderful caution. I won’t go into additional detail.
A senior U. S. intelligence community official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the record, told The Debrief that the heightened security measures were similar to intelligence information about planned attacks on defense facilities. through Russian agents.
The heightened security measures at US bases lasted a few days. However, less than two weeks after issuing the alert, American and German officials announced that they had exposed and thwarted a series of Russian plots to assassinate several European defense industry executives, adding Armin Papperger, the manufacturer’s chief executive. German Rheinmetall weapons.
Concerns about the use of Russian drones for espionage or sabotage have led German officials to propose an amendment to the Aviation Security Law. The amendment, which is expected to be approved by the German government on Wednesday (Jan. 15), would give the military government the power to shoot down unidentified drones operating in German airspace.
Authorizing the military to use kinetic force against unauthorized drones is most likely a reaction to the fact that non-kinetic measures against UAS, such as electronic jamming, spoofing, or directed energy weapons (DEWs), have proven useless in preventing drones. those incursions.
In late November 2024, a suspicious drone was sighted early in the morning near the British Royal Navy’s HMS Queen Elizabeth, while it was docked in the port of Hamburg. German port police attempted to neutralize the drone using HP-47. Electronic jammers. However, the drone deployed electronic countermeasures, allowing it to evade capture.
As reported in the past via The Debrief, despite significant advances, non-kinetic anti-drone technologies remain in their infancy, facing demanding situations such as limited diversity and peak energy demand. Currently, kinetic responses: munitions to physically shoot down drones. – remain the only reliable and consistent countermeasure.
No conclusive evidence has been presented linking Russia to the global waves of mysterious drones. However, Germany’s resolve to blatantly blame Moscow and allow its military to shoot down unauthorized drones underscores Berlin’s position that such incursions pose a serious risk to national security and public safety. an emergency that is being assumed across the United States.
At an occasion organized through the DGAP think tank in Berlin last November, Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (Bundesnachrichtendienst), warned of the serious consequences of Russia’s competitive covert activities. According to Kahl, such hybrid attacks against NATO allies are likely intended to test red lines established through Western partners and the seeding department among NATO members.
“The extensive use of hybrid measures by Russia increases the risk that NATO will eventually consider invoking its Article 5 mutual defense clause,” Kahl said. “At the same time, the increasing ramp-up of the Russian military potential means a direct military confrontation with NATO becomes one possible option for the Kremlin.”
Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement officer, investigative journalist, and co-founder of The Debrief. His writings focus on defense, national security, the intelligence community, and psychology-like topics. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan. Tim can be reached via email: tim@thedebrief. org or encrypted email: LtTimMcMillan@protonmail. com