Mysterious drone incursions continue to raise alarm across Europe, with the German government recently reporting several sightings near sensitive military installations. In response, Germany has brazenly warned that Russia could be responsible for those incursions and has taken unprecedented steps to strengthen its anti-drone defense measures.
More recent incidents and similar unexplained activities at critical NATO facilities and infrastructure have raised concerns about possible espionage or sabotage attempts.
On Sunday, January 12, the German government reported that approximately a dozen mysterious drones had been sighted near the Manching air base in Bavaria, near Ingolstadt.
“The deployed police officers encountered up to ten drones flying over the area,” the Bavarian state police said in a statement. “Despite extensive search measures and the intervention of a police helicopter, it is possible that the guilty user or users simply will not be identified. “
The officials added that in mid-December, several other drone raids took place over the Manching air base and the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) in Neuburg an der Donau.
Similar unexplained drone incursions have also been reported over the US Ramstein air base in southwestern Germany, as well as facilities belonging to German arms maker Rheinmetall and chemical giant BASF.
According to German media, several drones above the Ramstein air base, headquarters of the US Air Forces in Europe and NATO’s Allied Air Command, fly at more than one hundred miles per hour and are obviously not fans of drones. drones.
These incidents echo delayed reported drone sightings last year across the continental United States, specifically along the East Coast near New Jersey and New York, as well as near the Royal Air Force bases at Lakenheath, Mildenhall and Feltwell in eastern England.
U. S. officials say the wave of mysterious drone sightings over the United States last year is largely due to misidentification of traditional aircraft. They also ruled out the option that the sightings were paintings by a foreign adversary, adding that the events posed no threat to national or public security.
“At this time, we do not know that those activities originate from any foreign entity or are paintings by an adversary,” Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh said at a Dec. 11 news conference.
By contrast, the German government has been frank in suggesting that a state actor is most likely to blame for recent waves of mysterious drone incidents in its airspace.
Intelligence, defense and law enforcement officials have pointed to Russia as the ultimate culprit. The government said that the objective of these incursions is likely to be espionage or the preparation of acts of sabotage.
Although no definitive link to Moscow has been established, the National Criminal Investigation Office and the Central Office for Combating Extremism and Terrorism announced on Monday, January 13, that recent drone sightings over military installations in Bavaria were being investigated. as acts of espionage through Russia.
“As it is known that in the context of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, military installations and arms partners or corporations are being spied on, extensive search measures have been carried out to identify the drone pilots,” reported the Bavarian state police in a statement.
In August 2024, drones were repeatedly spotted flying over nuclear power plants, land-based liquefied natural gas terminals, and chemical plants near Brunsbüttel, Germany, along the North Sea coast.
German media outlet Bild reported that investigators suspect Moscow is involved in the incidents near Brunsbüttel. Citing unnamed law enforcement sources, Bild claimed that Russia allegedly used Orlan-10 drones introduced from a civilian shipment in the North Sea.
The STS Orlan-10 is a cheap and unsophisticated fixed-wing drone widely used in Russia for reconnaissance and intelligence gathering. According to the US Army’s Operational Environment Data Integration Network (ODIN), the Orlan-10 has a range of more than 370 miles and a top speed of just under one hundred mph. During reconnaissance missions, it typically operates at altitudes of 3,000 to 5,000 feet and has a service ceiling of up to 16,000 feet.
The Orlan-10 can autonomously fly pre-programmed waypoints and has a dwell capability of up to 16 hours, making it well suited for extended operations.
According to reports on the ongoing war between Moscow and Ukraine, Russia deploys several Orlan-10 drones in groups, with each of them being used for complementary purposes such as symbol collection, electronic warfare, signals intelligence, and knowledge transmission.
The reasons why investigators suspect Russian Orlan-10 drones were to blame for the drone raids near Brunsbüttel in August remain unclear. However, many mysterious drone sightings reported in Europe and the United States in recent years present striking similarities to the characteristics and flight patterns of Orlan-10 Drones, adding to their tendency to operate in groups.
Outwardly, American officials have largely downplayed the significance of the mysterious drone sightings over the United States. Meanwhile, over the past year, German intelligence and defense officials have expressed serious concerns that Russia is planning acts of sabotage against critical Western infrastructure and NATO military sites.
In November, he revealed that a series of fires at Leipzig airport in Germany arose from a plot by the Russian military’s intelligence agency, the GRU, to plant hidden explosives on shipping planes to the United States and Canada.
“The group’s objective was also to check the transfer channel of those packages, which were ultimately going to be sent to the United States and Canada,” Polish prosecutor Katarzyna Calow-Jaszewska told the BBC.
In the last several months, Russian intelligence agents have been accused of being behind arson attacks in Poland, the United Kingdom, the Czech Republic, Germany, Lithuania, and Latvia.
In July 2024, U. S. military bases in Europe were placed on the highest security alert level at the time, Force Protection Condition (FPCON) “CHARLIE. “According to Department of Defense regulations, FPCON CHARLIE “is applied when an incident occurs or when intelligence is obtained indicating that some “It is likely to be a terrorist action or an attack against the body of workers or services. ”
During the heightened alert, U. S. military workers stationed in Europe were barred from wearing uniforms outside the base, and foreign nationals hired at the facility were denied entry.
“WE. European Command is taking steps to building up the vigilance of our service members, their families and our installations,” Pentapassn Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh said a press briefing. “This has was done with wonderful caution I will not pass into extra details.
A senior U. S. intelligence community official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the record, told The Debrief that the heightened security measures were related to intelligence about planned attacks on defense facilities through of Russian agents.
Heightened security measures at U. S. bases lasted for a few days. However, less than two weeks after issuing the alert, U. S. and German officials announced that they had exposed and foiled a series of Russian plots to assassinate several European defense industry executives, adding Armin Papperger, the manufacturer’s chief executive. German Rheinmetall guns.
Concerns over the potential use of Russian drones for espionage or sabotage have prompted German officials to propose an amendment to the Aviation Security Act. Expected to be approved by Germany’s cabinet on Wednesday, January 15, the amendment would grant military authorities the power to shoot down unidentified drones operating in German airspace.
The authority for the military to use kinetic force against unauthorized drones is likely in response to the fact that non-kinetic counter-UAS measures, such as electronic jamming, spoofing, or directed energy weapons (DEWs), have proven to be ineffective at stopping these incursions.
In late November 2024, a suspicious drone was spotted early in the morning near the British Royal Navy’s HMS Queen Elizabeth, while it was docked in the port of Hamburg. German port police attempted to neutralize the drone using HP-47 electronic jammers. However, the drone deployed electronic countermeasures that allowed it to evade capture.
As reported in the past via The Debrief, despite significant advances, non-kinetic anti-drone technologies remain in their infancy, facing demanding situations such as limited diversity and peak energy demand. Currently, kinetic responses: munitions to physically shoot down drones. – remain the only reliable and coherent countermeasure.
No conclusive evidence has been presented linking Russia to the global waves of mysterious drones. However, Germany’s resolve to blatantly blame Moscow and allow its military to shoot down unauthorized drones underscores Berlin’s position that such incursions pose a serious risk to national security and public safety. an emergency that is being assumed across the United States.
At a meeting of the DGAP think tank in Berlin last November, Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service (Bundesnachrichtendienst), warned of the serious consequences of Russia’s competitive covert activities. According to Kahl, such hybrid attacks against NATO allies are likely intended to test red lines established through Western partners and the seeding department among NATO members.
“Russia’s heavy reliance on hybrid measures increases the threat that NATO will eventually consider invoking its Article Five mutual defense clause,” Kahl said. “At the same time, the growing potential of the Russian military means that direct military confrontation with NATO becomes an imaginable option for the Kremlin. »
Tim McMillan is a retired law enforcement executive, investigative reporter and co-founder of The Debrief. His writing typically focuses on defense, national security, the Intelligence Community and topics related to psychology. You can follow Tim on Twitter: @LtTimMcMillan. Tim can be reached by email: [email protected] or through encrypted email: [email protected]