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In February 2025, three years after Vladimir Putin launches his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the scene on the front may be very different.
Currently, Russian forces are advancing slowly but eastward and cutting off Ukraine’s partial control over the Kursk border region.
The fact that the Russians have not been more successful is mostly a testament to the resilience of Ukrainian troops on the ground, many of whom have been fighting frequently for years. The disarray of the Russian army, with Putin as de facto commander in chief, is another.
But US president Joe Biden has sent the final military package of his tenure to Ukraine, ending the support (for now) of Kyiv’s most heavily-armed ally. US president-elect Donald Trump will soon re-enter the White House on the promise of ending the fighting altogether, even if that potentially means rewarding Mr Putin for his illegal land grab.
Every inch of territory lost or gained can be important in long-term negotiations. Below we take a look at the existing hotspots on the approximately 640-mile front line.
Ukraine captured a chunk of the Russian border region of Kursk after a daring cross-border attack in August. They have held onto some of that territory ever since, though advancing Russian forces are shrinking the Ukrainian-held zone.
Senior Ukrainian official Mykhailo Podolyak revealed to The Independent a week after the attack that the assault was a “military tool of coercion to force Russia into the negotiation process”.
Kyiv will hope that what remains of their captured territory in Kursk when Mr Trump returns will prove vital in possible negotiations.
Russian forces have recently shifted more towards infantry-led assaults in the area, having tended towards mechanised, vehicle-heavy attacks in their initial attempts to reduce the Ukrainian-controlled territory.
The losses are high. Supported by between 10,000 and 12,000 North Korean soldiers, they have continued to tighten Ukraine’s perimeter. North Korean forces, for their part, have already suffered more than 1,000 casualties in Ukraine, the United States and South Korea.
Russia has advanced into the northwestern side of Ukraine’s assault as well as to the southeast of Sudzha, the main city held by Kyiv’s troops in Kursk, located on the other side of the attack.
Russian forces are conducting attacks to the north of the city of Kupyansk in the northeast Ukrainian region of Kharkiv, but they have gone months without a major breakthrough.
Recently, according to the Center for Defense Strategies (CDS), a Ukrainian security tank, the Russians were also “forced to retreat from the northeastern outskirts of Kupyansk to fortified positions” around the neighboring village. of Petropavlivka.
However, in an expanding offensive to the south, they captured several villages, the largest of which was Lozova, which consisted of about fifteen dwellings. It fell two weeks after the Russians surrounded it on three sides.
Ukraine and Russia have been fighting on the streets of Chasiv Yar, a city in the Donetsk region, since July, when kyiv’s troops withdrew from the eastern district of Kanal, the waterway as a new front line.
Despite fears, at the time, that this could lead to the fall of the strategically valuable Chasiv Yar, which sits on high ground, Russian forces have yet to stage a significant breakthrough.
Viktor Trehubov, a spokesman for Ukrainian forces fighting in the area, said on December 30 that Russian forces were seeking to attack the refractory factory in the middle of Chasiv Yar, a key Ukrainian defensive position in the settlement. However, he added that Ukrainian forces remain at the facilities.
The Russians are marching through the center of Toretsk, the city of Donetsk, but they have been in the hands of Ukrainian forces for months, some of whom have defended this domain for years.
Trehubov announced on December 29 that street clashes were taking place in Toretsk.
He added that Russian armored forces were seen collecting anti-tank mines and then throwing them at buildings in the direction of Toretsk.
This appears to be the purpose of the advance of Russian forces in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. Located on logistics routes connecting the rest of the region, Pokrovsk is a pillar of Donetsk’s defense.
Since the Russians captured the town of Avdiivka in February, Moscow troops have spread to about 30 miles outside Pokrovsk, seizing about 400 square miles of the area. This advancement resembles a swollen hump protruding from the front line.
Their success in the direction of Pokrovsk is clear as the Russian forces push towards the western outskirts of the city. Like in Kursk, they appear to have shifted towards small, infantry-led assaults after months of costly mechanised attacks. Ukraine estimates Russian vehicle losses in that area alone to be upwards of 2,000 in recent months, which includes tanks and armoured personnel carriers.
“The situation of the Ukrainian defense forces continues to deteriorate,” the SDC wrote. “The enemy is expanding its penetration south of Pokrovsk. “
Senior Ukrainian officials have blamed the “disastrous” defense of the Pokrovsk region, in part, on mismanagement and poor communication between generals and those fighting on the ground.
kyiv hopes to resolve this in 2025, by appointing a new commander of the grassroots forces.
In his latest update, Ukrainian army leader Oleksandr Syrskyi described the situation in Pokrovsk as the “hottest” on the roughly 640-mile front line. Russia is suffering heavy losses, he added, as it carries out “massive and non-stop attacks. “
About 24 km southwest of Pokrovsk is Kurakhove. It is in the lower left corner of Russia’s big attack on Pokrovsk.
Russian forces have had good luck in this area, advancing along the northern outskirts of Kurakhove along the Vovcha reservoir. They reached the outskirts of the village of Shevchenko, beyond the reservoir and Kurakhove, according to DeepState, a Ukrainian war observer with close ties to the military.
Meanwhile, some Ukrainian troops have withdrawn several kilometers from Kurakhov, around Shevchenko, to protect advancing Russian forces. However, fighting continues inside Kurakhove.
After the capture of the town of Vuhledar in October, Russian forces deployed about 19 miles in the direction of Velyka Novosilka, a town near Donetsk’s border with the Zaporizhzhia region.
The city has served as a key domain for offensive and defensive operations in the region, says Frontelligence Insight, a Ukrainian war observer. It is also a key address connecting the cities further east with the rest of unoccupied Ukraine.
Its capture could provide Russia with “multiple functions for further progress,” the organization adds.
Velyka Novosilka is almost surrounded on three sides by Russian forces.
Most of the recent Russian attacks have been on the western flank of Velyka Novosilka, but Moscow’s troops have also advanced towards the town of Novyi Komar in the east, as well as from the south.
A representative of a Ukrainian brigade operating near Velyka Novosilka said that Russian forces are attempting to bypass and seize Velyka Novosilka to reach the junction of the three regions of Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Dnipropetrovsk.
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