Beyond the front lines in Ukraine, Russia is waging another kind of war opposed to NATO. This is a secret low-intensity clash with serious consequences.
Moscow has long been waging a shadow war against the military alliance, but the war in Ukraine has led to an escalation of hybrid, or gray-zone, attacks on NATO since the conflict began.
“The scenario has definitely worsened compared to the initial and existing scenario,” said Gabrielius Landsbergis, who recently resigned after 4 years as the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, he told Business Insider. grown and its technique has increasingly aggressive.
The attacks in the gray zone have raised the consideration between current and previous officials of NATO and Europeans that these activities can cause more catastrophic results, especially if deterrence efforts are insufficient.
“They are accelerating,” Bi Bi told BI. “As long as they’re running and there are little to no consequences for the antagonist, why wouldn’t they?”
Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics emerged years ago, but they have become significantly more common occurrences since it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022. Since then, European countries have experienced many attacks and sabotage attributed to Moscow. These range from arson and signal jamming to assassination attempts and hacks.
The US Helsinki Commission, an independent government agency, has identified some 150 hybrid operations on NATO territory over the past three years that have been linked to Russia. These acts include critical infrastructure attacks, campaigns of violence, election interference, and weaponized migration.
The commission said in a report published last month that Russia is waging a shadow war against NATO, in parallel with its war in Ukraine, to “destabilise, destabilise and deter” the alliance in order to negatively affect aid to Kyiv.
James Appathurai, NATO’s undersecretary general for innovation, hybrids and cyber, said Russian hybrid tactics and strategy predict war and would continue long after the end, because Moscow regards the West as an unacceptable impediment to its wondrous ambitions for strength.
“This is an inherent component of Russian strategic thinking. The army is just a component of it,” said NATO Secretary General’s general secretary to Bi Apathurai. “Its purpose is to achieve political victory the complete spectrum of the tools. “
Hybrid attacks are not expanding, but Russia also shows a growing appetite for threatening civilians in NATO countries, Apathurai said. A massive incident is one of its greatest fears.
The last great repercussion incident occurred a few weeks ago, at the end of December, when several underwater cables were damaged in the Baltic Sea. The authorities suspect that an oil tanker dragged its anchor through the seabed to damage a line of Finnish-stare force and 4 telecommunications cables.
Finland seized the tanker Eagle and banned the team from leaving its territory. The ship, which pilots the Cook Islands flag, would belong to Russia’s so-called “Flot Shadow,” a collection of ship cargoes that Moscow uses to move oil and circumvent sanctions on its energy exports.
Critical undersea infrastructure, like the underwater cables facilitating massive amounts of global data transmission, is especially vulnerable to sabotage. There have been several incidents in recent months, as well as others in the past, and military leaders have long worried about the threats to these lines.
James Foggo, a retired US Navy admiral who previously served as the commander of Allied Joint Force Command Naples, told BI that Finland acted in defense of its sovereignty by detaining the ship accused of damaging the cables. He said responses to future assaults on critical undersea infrastructure “must be bold and have consequences for the perpetrator.”
I wasn’t alone at this point. It may be difficult to respond to tactics in the gray domain under the threshold of the armed shock, but there is a argument that NATO will have to be more competitive to punish the Kremlin because it operates assuming that the alliance is too passive.
“We already know that Russia is wearing down those moves opposed to us in hybrid space,” Breedlove said, adding that NATO wants to take action in reaction and “increase the burden on Russia, otherwise there is no incentive for it. ” stop. “
Beyond the physical pain caused through some hybrid attacks, a mental detail comes into play. Russia’s movements have fueled concern, among NATO first lines that have long warned about Moscow’s malicious activities, for fear that the alliance does not provide sufficient response.
In the aftermath of the Eagle S incident, NATO countries have taken various steps to address hybrid attacks and the threats to critical infrastructure.
The British government previously declared this month that it had deployed a reaction formula directed through the United Kingdom to trace the threats opposed to underwater infrastructure and monitor the ghost fleet. Last week, the White House announced opposite sanctions to more than 180 ships in the fleet (the European Union had already put around 80 ships black).
On Tuesday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced the launch of a new operation that will see the Alliance its Army presence in the Baltic Sea with warships, patrol aircraft and naval drones.
Speaking to reporters, Rutte said: “We are also executing with allies to integrate their national surveillance assets with NATO, ensuring comprehensive risk detection. “
But those taller patrols arguably wouldn’t be enough for absolutely the threat, and they’re not cheap. Foggo said bad players train a “cost-softening strategy” at NATO by expanding the value of undersea infrastructure coverage.
Still, the sweeping new measures appear to signal a new and more thorough approach from NATO as the Russian threat grows amid the grinding Ukraine war, nearing the start of its fourth year.
Appathurai said “time will tell” whether efforts such as higher patrols and sanctions on the shadow fleet will be enough for NATO from Russian activities. However, under pressure to make those steps much more powerful than the alliance has done in the past, thanks to political will and new technologies. He also said that member states would be more assertive in their reaction to the attacks, as shown through Finland through Aagle S.
“We are convinced that these measures are sufficient for now,” he said. NATO also has other lines of action; For example, last fall it turned to special operations divers for new protections.
NATO has also been strengthening its defenses against more conventional threats, beefing up its military presence throughout the eastern alliance members, specifically the Baltic states, which are considered to be the most vulnerable.
Meanwhile, the hybrid crusade shows no signs of slowing down as Russia seeks to exert its influence on the continent. Tiernsbergis warned that by doing so, Moscow is “recreating the geopolitical environment” in which it operates.
“Now they are escalating in Ukraine, in the West, with everything they do,” he said. “As long as we remain silent, calm and timid, hardly reacting, without perhaps degenerating and talking about de-escalation, this is the best environment for Russians. “
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