Russia has looted a plan presented through U. S. President Donald Trump’s team to end the Russia-Ukraine War through the NATO Kiev Club in exchange for a ceasefire, according to Russian state media.
Trump’s victory in November’s presidential election, his repeated complaint about Ukraine and U. S. investment in Kyiv, and his pledge to end the war within a day once in power, have raised considerations among NATO allies about the commitments he requires of Ukraine.
But the Kremlin’s rejection of what is reportedly a key element of the proposal forwarded by Trump’s team for a truce underscores warnings from some analysts who have cautioned against assuming that Russia is necessarily guaranteed an end to the war on its terms.
So what is Trump’s peace proposal in Ukraine, what has rejected Russia and why?
Trump was careful not to reveal much about his plan. “I can’t give you those plans because if I give you those plans, I’m not going to use them. Part of their surprise,” Trump said in an interview with the podcast with Lex Fridman in September.
On the campaign trail, Trump made promises of ending the Ukraine war within 24 hours. However, on December 12, he told Time magazine that “the Middle East is an easier problem to handle than what’s happening with Russia and Ukraine.”
Trump and his most sensible assistants have thrown some concepts for a truce in Ukraine. Here is what we know:
During his annual press interaction on Dec. 26, Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the concept that a check on Ukraine’s NATO club would be passable for Moscow.
Putin said he did not know the main points of Trump’s plan, the existing president, Joe Biden, made a similar suggestion in 2021 to postpone the admission of Ukraine from 10 to 15 years. “In terms of ancient distances and deadlines, it is a moment. What difference does this make, today or 10 years? He asked, rhetorically, in reaction to the consultation of a journalist, according to a transcription of the Kremlin of the interaction.
Then, on Sunday, the Russian state-owned news agency TASS quoted Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov doubling down on Putin’s rejection of some of Trump’s proposals for Ukraine.
“We are not happy with the proposals made through representatives of the president -elect team to postpone the members of Ukraine to NATO for 20 years and display a contingent for the maintenance of the peace of ‘British and European forces’ to Ukraine,” Lavrov said to Tass.
Lavrov added that Russia has not yet won “United States officials” on “Ukrainian regulations. ” The Russian diplomat explained that until the inauguration of Trump in Washington on January 20, only the Legal outgoing management management with Moscow.
Meanwhile, on Thursday, the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, said that Moscow was open to peace conversations with Ukraine held in Slovakia. Putin received Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico at the Kremlin this week. Fico has been skeptical about the Army of the European Union for Ukraine.
“Putin is bluffing, he wants a deal,” said Timothy Ash, an associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, a London-based think tank.
Ash told Al Jazeera that Putin “would play hardball in the head of the conversations to reject everything”, but “wishes an agreement because it cannot maintain a long war given the mass victims. ” And if Trump offers Putin an agreement what Russia may remain in the Ukrainian territory that recently controls, as Vance advised that it would be the offer, Moscow, Ash said, would probably agree.
“Trump is in a strong position, Putin is in a weak position,” Ash said. “Trump can celebrate a long war, while the United States won massive defense sales with 0 casualties in the United States. Hopefully Trump will realize it. “
Trump met Zelenskyy and French President Emmanuel Macron on December 7 in Paris. After the trilateral meeting, Trump told the New York Post that Zelenskyy wants a ceasefire. “He wants to make peace. We didn’t talk about the details,” he added.
Ukraine has in the past been under pressure that any peace deal will have to involve Russia’s annex of Ukrainian territory, adding Crimea, which it annexed in 2014.
However, in an interview with Sky News published on November 29, Zelenskyy moved his position. “If we need to avoid the hot phase of the war, we will have to take under the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control,” he said. “We have to do it quickly. And then, in the [busy] territory of Ukraine, Ukraine can bring them back diplomatically. »
“This is a main commitment of Zelenskyy in the territory,” Ash to Al Jazeera told at that time.
While NATO members have assured that Ukraine is on an “irreversible” path to joining the alliance, they are wary of admitting Ukraine while it is still at war with Russia. This is because the NATO treaty contains a mutual defence clause, decreeing that all members are considered to be under attack if one member comes under attack. Ukraine’s admission into NATO would imply that all NATO members are at war with Russia.
With Russia rejecting a compromise in the NATO club, which Ukraine gets, but two decades later, it is unclear how Kiev and Moscow can return to the negotiating table. The nato club is the centerpiece of what Zelenskyy has led as his peace plan.
But according to Ash, Zelenskyy may also be willing to commit to NATO membership. What Zelenskyy would compromise, Ash said, is in the factor of Ukraine’s security.
“Ukraine will have to be sure that through a distinctive feature of any agreement, Putin cannot simply invade,” Ash said. “This means that bilateral security promises west or cast iron insurance that will give Ukraine all the mandatory equipment to protect themselves, a bit like Israel or South Korea. “
Meanwhile, in the midst of warmth between Putin and Fico in Moscow last week, Zelenskyy hit the Slovak government. On Saturday, he accused Fico of opening a “second front of power” opposite to kyiv by the orders of Moscow. Russian fuel becomes Ukraine in Slovakia, Moldova and Hungary as a component of an agreement that expires at the end of this year.
Fico, after his stop at Putin, said Slovakia would oppose kyiv if he cuts fuel transfers on January 1, 2025.