In a press release on Friday morning, China’s National Statistics Bureau said its economy had a higher 5% in 2024 until a year ago, achieving its official target.
Analysts interviewed through Reuters hoped that the expansion of the Annual Chinese GDP reaches 4. 9%, a little less than the official objective of approximately 5%, which, according to analysts, ambitious.
Helen Qiao, the chief economist for Greater China at BofA Global Research, told Bloomberg TV that China’s GDP numbers look “pretty awesome.”
China’s policymakers have not yet released their GDP growth target for 2025.
Markets got a slight bump from China’s positive GDP release, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index both closing 0.3% higher on Friday.
In its data release, the NBS referenced some of the challenges the country is facing.
“We must be aware that the adverse effects brought by external environment are increasing, the domestic demands are insufficient, some enterprises have difficulties in production and operation, and the economy is still facing difficulties and challenges,” the NBS wrote.
Analysts attribute China’s better-than-expected GDP growth to a strong fourth quarter, notably in retail spending.
China’s economy grew 5.4% in the fourth quarter from a year ago — better than the 5% analysts had expected — after the government unleashed aggressive measures in September.
Last year, authorities rolled out measures to boost domestic consumption, including a trade-in program for consumer products, including household appliances.
Retail sales hit 4.5 trillion yuan in December. For the fourth quarter, retail sales rose 3.8% to the fastest pace of the year.
Full-year retail sales grew by 3.5% — well lower than the 7.2% growth in 2023.
China’s economy continued to be supported by its exports, which sent the country’s full-year trade surplus to nearly $1 trillion.
In December, industrial production jumped 6.2% as factories rushed to meet a frontloading of export orders ahead of US President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. Trump has threatened to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods, which would raise costs for importers.
However, the feeling of consumers in China has been bored. People do not spend enough and some are negotiated to less expensive products.
“The key consultation is whether we can see the confidence of consumers in the rear and begin a significant recovery. Pessimism has been rooted lately, and many efforts will be needed to get out of depression,” wrote Darren Tayarray the head of the threat from countries in Asia-Pacific to BMI.
China’s economy has been struggling to recover from the pandemic. It’s facing numerous challenges, including a yearslong property crisis, high youth unemployment, and deflation.
In the long term, China is grappling with a demographic crisis. The country’s population fell for a third consecutive year in 2024.
Some analysts require caution on unequal economic expansion of two speeds in China.
“While economic situations are broad, not all sectors are benefiting, highlighting demanding prospective situations in task creation,” wrote Dilin Wu, research strategist at online trading platform Pepperstone.
But bad news could turn into good news for China, Wu added, as an increasing number of challenges may prompt additional stimulus measures during the country’s annual parliamentary meetings in March.
Despite the demonstration of China’s expansion last year, there are long -standing considerations about the precision and quality of the country’s official versions.
Gao Shanwen, an eminent Chinese economist, recently said that official Chinese GDP figures would possibly be wrong and superior to genuine expansion figures.
Analysts at Rhodium Group wrote in a December report that China’s official knowledge will have to be read in the context of implicit “authority bias,” because Beijing highlights safe and solid knowledge, while it is other, more negative knowledge.
Notably, China has reported only a modest slowdown in genuine pre-Shovel securities GDP expansion, from 5. 2% in 2023 to 4. 8% on an annual basis through the third quarter of 2024, but the government has introduced a number of a number of competitive recovery measures, such as a 10 billion yuan refinancing program for local government debt and a mechanism for the inventory market directly.
“It does not have economic policy like this to counter a minor slowdown,” the analysts wrote.
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