Mexico is the main beneficiary of the drop in US imports from China, the so-called “near-shoring” phenomenon, according to my research of the most recent data from the US Census Bureau.
Vietnam is.
This comes as China’s share of U. S. industry has fallen precipitously. That percentage could fall below 10% of U. S. industry this year for the first time in more than two decades, as I wrote last week.
This is, of course, a direct result of former President Donald Trump’s more than $300 billion in price lists for Chinese imports and President Biden’s resolve to leave them in place. Not only has Biden kept those price lists intact, but he’s also imposing restrictions on similar spaces to EV generation and the industry.
One of the main reasons for the price is the United States’ industrial deficit, which at the time was five times larger with China than with any other country. In fact, the U. S. industry’s deficit with China has declined. However, the overall deficit in the United States continued to grow, especially with Mexico and Viet Nam. China’s deficit is now only three times that of Mexico.
Think about whether this is a Whac-A-Mole industrial deficit.
Before taking a look at the sharp decline in mobile phones, computers, furniture, televisions and monitors, as well as other imports, an explanation of my methodology.
Looking at knowledge for the first 4 months of this year, the recent maximum available, I then compared it to the same 4 months dating back to 2015, just before the Trump administration, and then focused on 2018, the year when those costs increase. in force.
I focused on the 10 U. S. imports from China that fell to the maximum in price between the first 4 months of 2018 and the first 4 months of this year. I then compare China’s market share of those 10 current imports to that of 2018.
Finally, and significantly, I looked at which countries had gained market share at the expense of China over the same period.
Chinese imports to the United States have decreased by 19. 78% between April 2018 (when Trump began enforcing the price lists) to today, or $31. 88 billion. The minimum in the 10 products analyzed here alone is $25. 06 billion.
The April 2024 cumulative total of $129. 56 billion in U. S. imports from China is less than any 12-year total, dating back to the first four months of 2012, with the exception of 2020, when the pandemic largely crippled the U. S. and global economies. . Formation
So here are the 10 US imports from China that have fallen the most since the first 4 months of 2018, in order from highest to lowest loss, ranging from $8. 02 billion to $1. 04 billion, a drop from 86. 13% to 26. 62%.
Note that when reading those products, U. S. imports from around the world increased by 2. 84% this year and by 10. 84% from 2018 to 2023, on an annualized basis.
U. S. imports of mobile phones are still ruled by China, but India’s expansion has been extraordinary.
It is the highest value import from China in 2015, 2018 and this year. The decline fell from $21. 51 billion in 2018 to $13. 49 billion this year, or $8. 02 billion (37. 27%). Imports from all over the world decreased by 5. 34% compared to the first 4 months of 2018.
China has grown from a market share of 63. 59% in 2018 to a fixed market share of 42. 14%, representing a cut of 33. 73%.
India is the big winner here, going from 0. 15% in 2015 to 10. 49% in 2024, a gain of 6,816%. Samsung, Apple and Xiaomi now manufacture in India, as part of a government initiative that has made India the second largest country in the world. Apple and Samsung, of course, are hitting American imports particularly hard.
Viet Nam’s imports to the United States increased from 5. 96 per cent to 11. 41 per cent, an increase of 91. 40 per cent. It ranks second to China and just ahead of India.
Mexico’s market share decreased from 10. 25% to 9. 26%.
Imports of PC portions increased in April, until the last 10 months of April.
Imports of PC parts from China fell by $4. 23 billion from the first four months of 2018 to this year, a decrease of 66. 84 percent. US imports at this time increased to 44. 14%.
China fell from a market share of US imports of computer parts from 71. 69% to 16. 49%.
During this period, Taiwan went from a market share of 6. 03% to 42. 72%, an increase of 608. 81%. Although Viet Nam remains a smaller player in the market, its market share increased through 3,067%, from 0. 30% to 9. 37%.
Mexico’s market share increased from 0. 79% to 3. 08%, with much of it going to Brownsville, Texas.
China finished 2023 at the top of the computer import indices, but that didn’t last.
Mexico has surpassed China this year, but China’s market share has been Taiwan and Viet Nam.
U. S. imports of computers from China have fallen to $3. 84 billion over the past six years, in the first four months of the year. However, it ranked second among imports through price from China to the United States in 2024, the same as in 2018.
This decrease, from $14. 42 billion to $10. 58 billion, is equivalent to 26. 62%. Computer imports from around the world increased by 39. 49% in this period.
China went from a market share of 53. 45% in the first 4 months of 2018 to 28. 11%, a drop of 47. 40%.
This will probably be the year in which Mexico surpasses China in this category, with a percentage until April higher than China’s 29. 90%; However, the gain compared to 2018 is only 0. 07%.
Taiwan 551. 42%, from 2. 88% to 18. 78%. Vietnam 1,461%, going from 0. 77% to 11. 96%.
Importantly, China’s strength in the computer sector lies in the most sensitive devices ($9. 47 billion out of a total of $10. 58 billion) and still holds the top spot, thanks to Viet Nam gaining a significant share of the market since Trump’s price lists began to take hold. It grew from a market share of 1. 73 percent in 2018 to 27. 80 percent this year, an increase of 1,504 percent.
Viet Nam has surpassed China in terms of furniture imports. Viet Nam’s share of the market has almost tripled in six years.
U. S. imports of Chinese furniture (the largest percentage are steel houses and furniture) fell 48. 05% from the first four months of 2018, or $1. 82 billion, from $3. 79 billion to $1. 97 billion. Furniture imports from around the world increased by 7. 09%.
Viet Nam overtook China as the largest source of United States in 2023 and is widening the gap this year. In 2018, Viet Nam accounted for 9. 66% of US furniture imports; today it represents 25. 88%.
Meanwhile, China accounted for 23. 55% this year, up from 48. 54% in 2018, a drop of 51. 49% versus a gain of 88. 67% for Vietnam.
The market share of Mexico increased from 5. 29% to 8. 56%.
This fell 40. 70% in six years, from $3. 32 billion to $1. 97 billion, or $1. 35 billion. However, its ranking remained consistent at fifth place among U. S. imports from China.
Mexico overtook China as the import leader in this category just before the pandemic and remained in the lead. It has gained market share against China, which fell from 53. 68% in 2018, when it was number one, to 33. 64%, a drop. 37. 32%.
Mexico went from 33. 13% to 44. 82%, a significant increase of 35. 29%. Viet Nam, however, increased from 1. 09% to 8. 67%, an increase of 692. 84%, and the highest percentage of unassembled PC monitors in China.
In fact, while Mexico has long dominated U. S. imports of color TVs, China has long dominated PC monitors. That hasn’t changed. If we limit ourselves only to monitors, China has lost market share to Mexico and still to Viet Nam. This year, Viet Nam will surpass Mexico in imports of U. S. monitors.
The two big players – Mexico and China – still 78. 46% of all U. S. imports in the combined monitor and TV category, down slightly from 86. 80% in 2018.
Japan in 2020 and Malaysia in 2022 surpassed China in printer imports to the United States.
In fact, U. S. imports of Chinese printers have declined since 2018, which is partly due to demand. U. S. imports of printers declined 10. 77% in value, partly due to a drop in print demand. But the decline in imports with China was 68. 63%, more than six times that of the country.
Imports decreased by 1,860 million dollars to 582. 02 million dollars.
As of April 2018, China had absorbed 35. 91% of all US printer imports that year. This year, this percentage is 12. 62%, a 64. 85% drop in market share. Japan surpassed China in 2020 and now represents 22. 88% of the total. , and Malaysia did so in 2022, now representing 16. 64% of the total. Thailand will probably be next, followed by Vietnam.
The market share of Mexico also increased from 3. 23% to 5. 41%.
The cost of importing seats from China to the United States fell by $1. 22 billion between the first four months of 2018, when Trump began imposing tariffs, until this year. This represents a reduction of 34%. Imports of seats from around the world to the United States increased by 6. 11%.
China accounted for 44. 53% of all United States seat imports in the first 4 months of 2018, a figure that had fallen to 27. 70% this year. Mexico overtook China last year to take first place in this category.
While the percentage increase in Mexico’s market from 28. 79% to 33. 03% is negligible (14. 71%), Vietnam increased from 5. 46% to 16. 98%, an increase of 211. 12%, almost seven times that of Mexico. These 3 countries account for more than 3-quarters of all imports in this category.
As with the TV and monitor category, as well as the PC category, a closer look shows that the gains at the expense of China are largely Vietnamese.
Mexico dominates in one category: seats used in the automotive industry, which is unexpected given the strength of the North American chain that has developed. But Viet Nam is now the leader in wooden upholstered chairs, having overtaken China. It leads all three nations in unupholstered wooden chairs, as well as a few other non-automotive categories.
In 2018, China ranked first among U. S. resources in the Virtual Garage Devices category. . . . [ ] Today it ranks ninth.
No category has experienced a crisis comparable to the one China has experienced with the category that the United States imports from virtual garage devices.
Between the first 4 months of 2018 and the first 4 months of this year, these imports fell by 86. 13%, from $1. 34 billion to $186. 50 million. It’s a fall.
During this period, total imports of U. S. virtual garage devices from around the world increased to 29. 46%.
China accounted for 39. 50% of those imports in 2018, more than double that of any other country. In 2024, it is 4. 23% and ranks ninth.
South Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan are the main players, accounting for 57. 57% of the total this year. In 2018, the three represented 31. 53%. Of the three, South Korea has more than doubled its market share since 2018, from 8. 16% to 23. 95%.
But the fastest-growing U. S. importer is a surname, Viet Nam, whose market share increased to 4,324%, from 0. 12% to 5. 20%.
Mexico also saw an expansion in those imports, with its market share expanding to 142. 11%, from 3. 49% to 8. 46%.
South Korea, Taiwan and Japan overtook China in 2020.
China slightly maintained its number one ranking in U. S. virtual camera imports this year. . .
. . . In the first four months of 2024, Vietnam now ranks first, ahead of China, in US imports of virtual cameras.
It’s now a familiar refrain: Vietnam is the clear winner in this category.
It looks like this year it will surpass China and surpass it until April.
This category has fallen by 45. 56% in just two years, from $3. 61 billion to $1. 97 billion, or $1. 65 billion. However, their ranking has remained consistent at No. 5. Since 2018, its market share has increased to 534. 46%, from a paltry 2. 93% to 18. 60%.
Meanwhile, China saw its percentage fall from a majority, from 50. 09%, to 17. 57%, a drop of 64. 92%.
Its total, from $1. 71 billion, fell to $598. 03 million, a total of $1. 11 billion. Overall, US imports have decreased 0. 29% since 2018, to $9. 80 million.
So we will catch fire after this category, which experienced the tenth largest drop between the first four months of 2018 and the first four months of this year.
During this period, China saw its market share decrease from 62. 58% to 38. 90%, a drop from 37. 84% at a time when the total of all US imports in this category fell to 18%.
Even with this drop, China remains at the top of the rankings, still almost double the market share of Mexico, number 2. Mexico has increased its market share to 2. 54% since 2018, from 20. 34 % to 20. 85%. The products account for about 60% of all U. S. imports in this category, which includes everything from chandeliers to Christmas tree lights.
But the two fastest growing resources were Vietnam and Cambodia: the former expanded its market share from 6,698% to 7. 81% and the latter expanded its market share from 6,207% to 2. 91%.