Two years after Xi Jinping declared an “unfettered” partnership with Vladimir Putin, and as leaders meet in Beijing on May 16 and 17, the world has a smart idea of what China’s strategy means in practice. . As we did this week, Chinese corporations are supporting Putin’s war in Ukraine by promoting parts needed to make weapons for Russia. China’s coast guard harasses ships in the South China Sea, announcing their false territorial claims. And Chinese spies would interfere in Britain and elsewhere.
Xi’s challenge to the global world is more sophisticated than the one posed by the hawkish Putin. However, it is still a problem. It aspires to take orders from the strongest, letting China do what it wants. Their goal for pariah states is to challenge and divide the West, while avoiding direct confrontation. Its “gray zone coercion” in the South China Sea is not a war, but aims to weaken enemies. China believes that such tactics can be maintained without leading to conflict. The question for any country with global regulations is how far it can let Xi go.
When it comes to Russia, the Chinese leader has already gone quite far. Xi is ignoring Western demands that he tone down his own toward Xi. Putin, and he sees Russia as an indispensable spouse in his crusade to dismantle the US-led order. The two countries have deepened their military-industry relations. The United States, in turn, has tightened sanctions and imposed price lists on China in other areas. Chinese parts and machinery for Russian weapons brands are the most worrying. Antony Blinken, the most sensible American diplomat, said that Russia would find it difficult to continue its activities in Ukraine without China’s support. China is not involved in the crisis nor has it abandoned it, Mr. says. But a long war that tests Western unity is to his advantage.
On the other side of the world, what worries the United States and its allies is the threat of a confrontation provoked through China. The South China Sea is larger than the Mediterranean, but it’s difficult to cross it without encountering Chinese coast guard ships doing harmful things. Near two disputed shoals, Chinese guards routinely attack Philippine ships with water cannons strong enough to bend the metal. Further south, Chinese ships harass Malaysian ships in search of oil and fuel in Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone, waters that China considers its own.
The Philippines’ defense treaty with the United States turns Chinese intimidation into a confrontation between superpowers. The stakes are equally high on the side of Taiwan, which is preparing to swear in Lai Ching-te as the new president on May 20. China is acting as if the island’s air and sea borders do not exist. The United States and its allies are preparing for the worst-case scenario: a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. But for now, the greatest danger lies in the grey zone, where Chinese moves threaten to trigger a spiral of escalation.
By design, China’s moves in Europe, Asia, and elsewhere are situated between war and peace. A blunt reaction may seem like an overreaction. However, doing nothing means ceding more profits to China. Therefore, the first task of Western countries is: it is to denounce China’s moves as they are: a glimpse of the global order sought through Chinese leaders, in which no country cares or dares to challenge its power. Being kind to China helps avoid complacency. (Before the invasion of Ukraine, Europeans (states were too slow to believe United States warnings about Russia’s malign intentions. )And data can replace public opinion. Polls in some countries that are the target of China’s bullying recommend growing distrust.
All this makes a momentary task easier. The United States will have its allies, not out of charity, but because they are a superpower asset that China lacks. China and Russia’s incessant attempts to split alliances, from NATO to the US defense network in Asia, are indirect praise. Autocrats respect strength, and strength is in numbers.
Finally, the West will have to take advantage of the fact that Xi’s country has an interest in stability. The Chinese leader is not willing to abandon Putin. But unlike his Russian friend, he doesn’t get advantages from chaos. Blinken credited China with persuading Russia not to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. China also did not supply it with deadly weapons. Indeed, their relationship has limits, just as there are lines that China is reluctant to cross in the South China Sea. Naïve dreams of converting China are a thing of the past: its global vision of beggar-thy-neighbour is all too clear. But Xi’s global calculation technique also presents an opportunity. As China’s economy slows, it is in its interest to avoid a complete break with the West. The most productive way to calm the aggression and intimidation of Xi’s gray zone is to show that this comes at a cost.
© 2024, The Economist Journal Limited. All rights reserved. Taken from The Economist, license published. The original content can be viewed on www. economist. com
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