At Paradise Point in Karachi, on the Pakistani coast, China’s long-term ambition to become a world leader in the nuclear power industry is taking shape.
For nearly a part of a century, electrical power at the site (Pakistan’s first nuclear operation) was provided through reactors designed in Canada. But last year, Pakistani nuclear officials gave final approval to the new Hualong-1 reactors, which constitute the China National Nuclear Corporation’s first exports of third-generation power plant technology.
In March, Xu Pengfei, chairman of the China Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation, told CGTN, China’s state-run TV channel, that the devices were “operating successfully” and had shown a “collaborative effort in innovation,” with domestic suppliers offering more power. . more than 90% of the material.
Nuclear power remains a developing industry in China. In the past decade, the capacity of installed power plants has more than doubled, according to data from the United States Energy Information Administration and the International Atomic Energy Agency. In April this year, China had 55 reactors with an installed capacity of 53 gigawatts, up from less than 20 GW in 2014.
Today, the United States remains the world’s largest user of nuclear power, with 94 operational reactors with an installed capacity of 96 GW. However, China is building new reactors at a faster rate than any other country. It has 26 reactors under construction, with an installed capacity of about 30 GW.
While Beijing’s initial explanation for why the use of nuclear force was security of force, the technology’s potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has become increasingly vital to policymakers, according to researcher Philip Andrews-Speed in research carried out for the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIE).
A key moment came in September 2020, when Chinese leader Xi Jinping announced that the country’s carbon emissions would peak before 2030 and reach net 0 until 2060.
Policymakers at Beijing’s nuclear force can help upgrade coal-fired power plants, which remain the country’s main source of electric power despite the immediate expansion of renewables. And they’re on their way to getting there: China’s policy is in line with that of the International Energy Agency. It estimates that global nuclear capacity will need to double by 2050 to meet net-zero targets.
In recent months, nuclear generation has also been touted in China as a “new productive force,” a component of Xi’s vision of long-term economic expansion supported by complex production industries.
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Michal Meidan, head of China strength studies at the OIES, says nuclear power is “definitely a component of the solution” to China’s decarbonization plans, especially since the country has its own nuclear industry that can generate profits and international expansion.
But the immediate expansion of China’s nuclear industry has raised questions about resource security, protection, regulation and export plans as geopolitical tensions rise. Meidan notes that Chinese attempts to export nuclear generation have “met with resistance,” primarily in Romania and the United Kingdom. , amid a broader backlash against China in Europe and the United States.
“Globally, nuclear force is a divisive issue,” Meidan says. “It obviously has environmental attributes that can be useful, but safety, fuel reprocessing and uranium availability are all cause for concern. “ Array Array It is unclear what role the nuclear force will play in China’s transition of forces.
Last year, nuclear power accounted for about five percent of China’s total electric power generation, but investment in building new power plants reached $13. 1 billion in five years.
As more reactors come online, nuclear power’s contribution to China’s power generation pool is expected to reach about 10% through 2035 and 18% through 2060, according to the China Nuclear Energy Association.
David Fishman, an analyst at consultancy The Lantau Group, says the speed of expansion of China’s nuclear force in recent years means the country is likely at “maximum capacity for industry,” with regulatory agencies and the source chain in particular. of tension.
“To staff all the power plants, you need to have nuclear power. “ Array Array and graduates in chemical engineering. Array Array and then an equivalent number of other people in Beijing, on the regulatory side, to manage all the factories, to carry out inspections, controls and protection examinations,” he says.
Fishman also notes that China is reluctant to rely on the “vagrancy of foreign markets” for its long-term uranium supply. China’s policy is to source about one-third of its uranium domestically, one-third from Chinese corporations with foreign mines, and one-third from the foreign spot market.
“But the fact is that they don’t have much internal uranium, so at some point it can be a challenge,” Fishman says.
Houseplants will be very controversial, simply because if a twist of fate occurs, it will have a large-scale impact.
Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Center at the Asia Society Policy Institute, a think tank, believes a key internal question is whether Beijing makes the decision to expand its nuclear force capability from the east and south coasts, where it has been focused lately. — to the vast areas of the interior of the country. Experts recommend that these plans be included in the country’s fifteenth five-year plan, from 2026 to 2030.
Li, who in the past led Greenpeace’s China climate replacement team in Beijing, says that while the public’s belief about nuclear force in China is “neutral,” in the early 2010s, a debate over whether to expand the industry locally sparked furious reactions from affected provinces.
“In fact, nuclear power is not as debatable as in some continental European countries, such as Germany or Japan,” Li observes. “That said, domestic power plants will be highly debatable, simply because, if “a twist of fate occurs, it will have a very large-scale effect on downstream provinces. “
However, China’s advances in nuclear technology, thanks to generous state support, mean that – like the country’s solar, wind and electricity industries – its nuclear power sector is also moving outwards, to reshape global energy markets.
Although there is resistance to Chinese nuclear projects in many Western countries, the Chinese-made reactors at Paradise Point in Karachi are the beginning of an export campaign.
Over the next decade, China plans to build and fund reactors in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, according to Lami Kim, director of the Asian Studies Program at the U. S. Army War College. She believes this strategy may have “significant implications” as Beijing shapes global nuclear governance and shifts the balance of power away from the United States.
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