The functionality of China’s exports soared in the first part of 2024, rising 6. 9% to RMB 12. 13 trillion ($1. 67 trillion). The increase was driven through strong functionality in high-tech sectors such as embedded circuits and the automobile. Pressures will dampen the positive outlook. In addition, the industrial landscape has changed significantly, with industrial volumes increasing with ASEAN and Latin America, while exports to the EU, United States, Japan and Australia have declined. We take a closer look at China’s industry expansion in the first part of 2024.
China’s foreign industry in the first part of 2024 reached 2. 98 trillion U. S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 2. 9% in U. S. dollar terms, generating an industry surplus of 435 billion U. S. dollars, an increase of 8. 6% in one year. In RMB terms, the industry’s expansion is even more extensive: 6. 1% year-on-year. This expansion underscores China’s strong functionality in a complex global industrial landscape and accelerating economic dynamics.
Exports played a very important role in the expansion of China’s industry, totaling 1. 71 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3. 6%. The main sectors in which export expanded included electromechanical products, embedded circuits and automobiles which saw impressive increases. Exports of embedded circuits increased by 25. 6 percent, while exports of automotive products increased by 22. 2 percent, demonstrating China’s development position in the automotive and high-tech markets.
The trade dynamic has also changed: ASEAN retains its prestige as China’s largest trading partner, while industry with the EU has experienced a slight decline. In contrast, the industry with the United States and South Korea showed several trends, with the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries seeing a 7. 2% increase in industry volume. Exchanges.
Understanding those trends is key to understanding broader economic and industrial dynamics, as well as foreign responses to China’s evolving industrial policies. This article explores the points of China’s strong export growth, the key markets contributing to this performance, and the prospects for Chinese exports amid emerging global economic tensions.
China’s export capacity has been the subject of great interest and analysis, especially given its impressive expansion trajectory in recent years. Between 2019 and 2023, the percentage of China’s exports to the world increased by 35. 2%, reaching the really high sum of 3. 38 US dollars. Billion.
This upward trend continued into the first part of 2024, when exports increased by 3. 8% year-on-year in dollar terms, reaching a total of $1. 71 trillion. In this era, too, China reached a record monthly industrial surplus of $99 billion in June 2024, according to fDi Intelligence, underscoring its dominant position in the global industry.
The following table represents the overall industry distribution from January to June 2024.
The magnitude of China’s export expansion is also reflected in the increase in exports to 202 from 233 countries and regions between the first part of 2019 and the first part of 2024. This expansion highlights China’s strategic efforts to diversify its industrial relations and economy. . influence around the world. Despite a 4. 6% drop in the absolute price of exports in 2023, the three-year moving average of China’s exports reached a record high of $3. 41 trillion for the 2021-2023 period, reinforcing China’s central role in the global economy.
However, this immediate expansion and the accompanying industrial surplus, which remained above $822 billion in 2023, have not been without controversy. The huge industrial imbalances have raised concerns among foreign policymakers about their effect on domestic industries and employment.
In response, major export markets, along with the United States, the European Union, India, Brazil, and Turkey, have notably implemented new price lists and industry restrictions, specifically targeting sectors where China has a competitive advantage, such as electric cars (EVs). and other blank technologies. Formation
China’s industry dynamics in the first part of 2024 reveal that engagement with ASEAN and Latin America saw significant growth, while industry with the EU, US, and Latin America saw significant growth. The U. S. , Japan and Australia have weakened.
Trade with ASEAN countries grew 7. 1% year-on-year to $472. 45 billion, with Vietnam leading the way with a notable 20. 6% expansion. The Latin American industry with China increased 7. 4% year-on-year to $252 billion, thanks to a strong 11. 3% increase in exports.
Trade within the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) countries has also grown, although at a slower pace than the overall foreign industry. From January to June 2024, the industry with RCEP members reached $899. 36 billion, an increase of 1. 59%. to these countries increased by 2. 52% year-on-year to $470. 25 billion.
Western economies have experienced declines. China’s industry with the EU fell 3. 7% to $382. 39 billion, with exports down 2. 6% and imports down 5. 7%. Trade with the United States remained strong at $322. 63 billion, a slight annual decline of 0. 2%, and exports increased just 1. 5%.
Likewise, the industry with Japan and Australia saw declines: Japan down 5. 1% to $148. 59 billion and Australia down 5. 1% to $109. 6 billion. billion dollars, with discounts on exports and imports where appropriate.
China’s export expansion has been remarkably broad-based, with increases reported in 199 of 235 countries and regions. The analysis of the knowledge of primary export markets shows trends and changes.
One of the most productive countries was Zimbabwe, whose imports from China increased from $368. 8 million in 2019 to $1. 4 billion in 2023. This tripling underscores China’s strategic expansion into African markets. Similarly, the Republic of Congo experienced a significant increase in Chinese imports increased from $435 million to $1. 49 billion in the same period. These figures highlight China’s specific efforts to strengthen industrial relations with African countries, facilitated through investments and progress assistance.
In Europe, Belarus has become a notable market despite EU sanctions following the 2020 presidential election. Chinese exports to Belarus increased by 225% to $5. 87 billion between 2019 and 2023. This increase is truly extensive. reflects the dynamic nature of China’s industrial strategies. , where economic and geopolitical considerations are intertwined. Countries such as Serbia and Uzbekistan have also reported abundant expansion of Chinese imports, reaping benefits from China’s foreign direct investment (FDI) and infrastructure projects under the BRI. Turkey, with its strategic position connecting Europe and Asia, has also noted an increase in Chinese imports, further illustrating the widening reach of Chinese export destinations.
North America remains a market for Chinese exports, with the United States leading the way in terms of import volumes. Chinese customer demand for consumer electronics, machinery and textiles remains strong, despite ongoing industrial tensions and regulatory challenges. This shows the deep interdependencies and chains of origin embedded between the two economies.
In the Asia-Pacific region, Japan and South Korea remain vital buyers of Chinese products. Regional origin chain integration and industrial agreements such as RCEP have facilitated smoother industrial flows and functionality of Chinese exports in those markets.
The diversification of China’s export markets is only a reaction to geopolitical tensions, but also a strategic measure to mitigate dangers and exploit new opportunities for expansion. China’s ability to adapt to global conversion dynamics and its proactive industrial policies have allowed it to expand its reach, even in non-traditional markets.
The knowledge of exports for the first part of 2024 shows significant trends in China’s industry performance. Exports of agricultural products increased by 2. 0% year-on-year. Exports of subtle oil decreased by 4. 1% compared to the first part of last year. Interestingly, the price of rare earths has seen a very significant drop of 43. 2% despite a 10. 9% increase in volume, indicating a possible drop in global prices.
In the manufactured goods and technology sector, Chinese exports of plastic products increased by 8. 3% year-on-year, and furniture exports increased by 14. 8% year-on-year, reflecting strong global demand. The machinery and electrical products sector, which includes key products Exports, such as those of automatic knowledge-processing apparatus and embedded circuits, registered an overall increase of 4. 9% year-on-year. In this category, exports of embedded circuits increased by 21. 6% in value, indicating strong functionality of the semiconductor industry.
Automobile exports, including chassis, increased by 18. 9%, while ship exports grew by an impressive 85. 2% in value, reflecting a strong recovery in global shipping demand. High-tech products overall saw a 3. 1% increase. highlighting China’s continued strength in complex manufacturing sectors. Overall, China’s export outlook in 2024 features a wide diversity of industries that particularly contribute to its global industrial dominance.
In the following sections, we provide a detailed breakdown of the sectors driving this growth.
China continues to dominate the global electronics market, and generation and electronics remain at the forefront of its export economy. Of note is the embedded circuit production industry, whose exports are expected to reach US$177. 7 billion by 2024. This sector benefits from China’s position as the largest and leading embedded circuit market. fastest growing, supported by strong demand for commercial equipment, communications networks and new energy. vehicles.
The production of mobile phones and smartphones is also a key contributor, with exports valued at $162. 9 billion and $125. 5 billion, respectively. The immediate progression of 4G and 5G technologies has boosted demand, although market expansion has slowed due to saturation.
In addition, the production of computers, together with peripherals, is a fundamental export sector and together contributes more than 196 billion dollars. Despite demanding situations such as declining foreign demand and intense competition, China’s role as a global production base remains strong.
The automobile sector has experienced really significant growth, specifically in the export of electric vehicles. Companies like BYD have outperformed their foreign competitors, reflecting China’s progress in this area. Additionally, the metal rolling industry, which supports automobile manufacturing, has exports estimated at US$59. 3 billion. This sector has faced oversupply issues, but remains important due to growing demand for products. high quality metallic materials from the processing industries.
The commercial machinery sector, which is not explicitly indexed among the major exporters, plays a very important role in supporting these industries through the source of essential parts and equipment.
China’s consumer goods sector, namely textiles, clothing, and household appliances, continues to make a concrete contribution to exports. The footwear industry alone is expected to export $66. 7 billion by 2024, highlighting China’s long-standing role as the world’s leading supplier.
However, this industry is facing demanding situations similar to intense foreign festivals and the relocation of production bases to Southeast Asia. Despite those obstacles, product demand for Chinese customers remains strong, driven by a broad and competitive product portfolio.
The healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors are a key expansion sector for Chinese exports. Pharmaceutical raw curtain production exports are expected to reach $65. 4 billion through 2024. China is one of the leading manufacturers of must-have pharmaceutical ingredients, such as vitamin C, citrus fruits. acid and penicillin. The COVID-19 pandemic has particularly boosted global demand for these products and highlighted China’s central role in the global chain of pharmaceutical sources.
In addition, the software progression industry, which supports healthcare through the progression of software and medical applications, is expected to contribute $56 billion to exports.
In the early part of this year, China’s export functionality through provinces revealed regional contributions and discrepancies in expansion rates. Among the provinces, 22 experienced an annual expansion in industry volumes and 11 of them recorded double-digit expansion.
If analyzing the export knowledge of Chinese provinces during the first part of 2024, this segment uses terms in RMB (Renminbi) instead of US dollars due to the availability of knowledge.
Guangdong, China’s top exporting province, continued to dominate with a remarkable performance. Its total industrial price reached RMB 4. 37 trillion (USD 601. 73 billion), a significant increase of 13. 8% from the same period last year. This physically powerful expansion highlights Guangdong’s role in the national business landscape.
Several points contributed to Guangdong’s export performance:
Zhejiang Province also showed strong performance, with the overall industry price reaching RMB 2. 56 trillion ($352. 50), a year-on-year increase of 7. 8%. The province’s export price rose 8. 6% to RMB 1. 90 trillion ($261. 62 billion).
Key facets of Zhejiang’s export expansion include:
The Yangtze River Delta Region (YRD), comprising Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui, achieved a combined industry of RMB 7. 74 (US$1. 06 trillion), marking an all-time high. Exports from this region grow 5. 9% year-on-year, representing 36. 6% of the national total.
Factors that contribute to the success of the YRD include:
The functionality of several central and western provinces is remarkable. Provinces such as Xinjiang, Shanxi and Tibet have experienced impressive rates of expansion.
The expansion of those regions reflects the broader trend of greater economic activity and industrial integration in China’s less developed regions.
In general, personal corporations have key players in export growth. In Guangdong, personal enterprises accounted for 64% of the province’s total exports. Similarly, Zhejiang and Shandong have benefited from a significant contribution from personal corporations. This trend highlights the growing influence of personal corporations. in China’s industrial dynamics, driven by the improvement of the business environment and overseas strategic engagements.
China’s strong export performance in recent years can be attributed to a combination of strategic economic policies, progress in manufacturing, and flexibility in addressing global economic challenges. A vital aspect is China’s advancement up the price chain, with an increase in the production of high-priced goods such as electric cars and complex electronics. It is worth noting that Chinese automakers are outperforming global competition and making significant inroads into overseas markets.
However, this positive view is tempered by several underlying challenges. Indeed, persistent deflationary pressures have made Chinese goods more affordable, boosting exports, but have also reduced their overall value. Domestically, China faces significant economic pressures, coupled with a real estate crisis and weakening domestic demand, which pose major dangers to sustainable growth. Furthermore, geopolitical tensions and industrial restrictions, especially in markets such as the United States, the European Union and India, have created a volatile business environment.
These countries have implemented price lists and restrictions on Chinese products, specifically in sectors where China gains competitive advantages, such as blank technology.
China’s strategic investments in its price chain and strong functionality in key sectors have strengthened its export capacity. However, the long-term outlook remains cautious. The diversification of global supply chains amid heightened geopolitical tensions, coupled with declining demand from major economic partners, suggests that external demand is likely not a reliable driving force for growth. This balanced attitude highlights the complexity of China’s export dynamics, where impressive gains coexist with demanding situations and significant uncertainties.
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