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By Peter Coy
Review Writer
Let’s say you’re an armchair economist and you believe the U. S. economy is already in a recession (as many other people think). Or he’s sure he’s still growing. Anyway, he would like to be part of the committee. that he semi-formally determines the beginning and end of recessions.
Sorry, no programs are accepted. Robert Hall, an economist at the Stanford and Hoover Institutions who has chaired the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee since its founding in 1978, told Bloomberg in 2018 that to serve on the committee, one will have to be an educational macroeconomist with a strong background in business cycle research. and yet you can’t introduce yourself.
“It would be very unfortunate if they called me or called James Poterba and said, ‘I need to be on the committee,'” Hall said. Poterba is the president of the N. B. E. R. “It would be. . . it’s just not the way. ” The others are well-behaved,” Hall said. “They’re waiting for us to call them. “
But you don’t have to be on a committee to check what the committee does. You can take a look at the six economic signs the committee says it primarily relies on and whether the economy is in or near a recession. (The committee itself doesn’t make its decisions until long after recessions begin or end, allowing time for insights to be fully verified. )
According to the bureau’s definition, a recession is “a significant decline in economic activity that spreads across the economy and lasts for more than a few months. “
Unlike the peak in cases, the 2020 Covid recession did not last “more than a few months. ” It was in February and ended in April. The first set of charts shows how the six signs the committee focuses on have replaced each other since this recession ended.
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