With much of the Black Sea Fleet reportedly driven from its base in Crimea, Kiev continues to launch headline-grabbing moves against the Russian navy, with Rostov-on-Don being the latest scalp touted in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s General Staff said the Kilo-class submarine crashed Friday in the port of Sevastopol where it “sank on the spot,” a claim that has not been independently verified and about which Newsweek contacted the Russian Defense Ministry.
Kiev denounced Friday’s attack on the peninsula occupied by Moscow since 2014 and which Ukraine has pledged to recapture, in addition to four launchers belonging to Russia’s complex S-400 air defense system.
Without an army of its own, Ukraine continued to attack Russian ships with Western long-range missiles and naval drones, forcing the fleet east of its base in Novorossiysk, in Russia’s Krasnodar territory.
“Rostov-on-Don is probably also on the verge of retreating to Novorossiysk,” said Yörük Işık, a geopolitical analyst at Istanbul-based maritime consultancy Bosphorus Observer.
He noted that the submarine was repaired following a drone strike in September 2023 and returned to the water for an at-sea trial. “It happened again,” he told Newsweek.
Since the start of the war in February 2022, Ukraine claims to have seriously damaged or sunk at least 15 warships, including the Black Sea Fleet flagship Moskva. Casualties included landing ships and other vessels, such as the missile-armed warship Tsiklon in May and the Sergei Kotov in March.
Britain’s Ministry of Defence said in July that at least 26 Russian ships had been damaged or destroyed, while an estimate published in March via the Hudson Institute think tank indicated that Kyiv was on track to become part of the fleet by 2025.
Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Britain’s chief of defence staff, said Ukraine had subdued the Russian fleet “with drones and long-range missiles” and Ukrainian navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk recently said the Russian “last patrol boat” was moving away from Crimea. .
“Lately there is no chance for the Russian Navy in the western parts of the Black Sea, as it has lost a lot of assets,” Işık said. “Due to Turkey’s closure of the Bosphorus, Russia does not have the capacity to introduce new assets into the Black Sea, unless it is a limited number of smaller Caspian Sea assemblages. “
However, Işık said it is notable that Moscow is also seeking to identify some other base in the breakaway region of Abkhazia in Georgia, which is identified worldwide as a component of Georgia but is de facto controlled by separatist authorities. Moscow has identified Abkhazia as an independent state, while Tbilisi considers it occupied through Russia.
Işık said Russia would soon send a tugboat to help the U-boats at the Ochamchire site, a beach in the city where a small naval facility used by the Russian fishing fleet would be refurbished. “The Russian military is not only moving east, towards Novorossiysk, however, it is looking further afield, in the southeastern corner of the Black Sea, away from any imaginable Ukrainian attack and its safe harbor. “
At the same time, with little progress on the front line in Ukraine and the Russian prisoner swap in which the Kremlin could simply retreat to argue that it can negotiate an end to the war, Kyiv’s latest attack opposes a shipment to the Black Sea. The fleet arrives at the right time, Yes said.
“The point is that Ukraine organizes successful operations that show that it can continue the war that it can still win. “
Brendan Cole is a senior journalist at Newsweek, founded in London, United Kingdom. He focuses on Russia and Ukraine, that is, on the war through Moscow. He also covers other areas of geopolitics, including China.
Brendan joined Newsweek in 2018 from the International Business Times and, in addition to English, studies Russian and French.
You can contact Brendan by emailing b. cole@newsweek. com or following him on his X account @brendanmarkcole.
© 2024 DIGITAL NEWS LLC