The ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) is a projection model that rates every team in College Football for their past performances and projects future games. The Index is altered each week as a team exceeds expectations or regresses in form. The FPI was kind to Virginia Tech during the preseason, projecting an 8-4 record. Following the first two games, the model has shifted the outlook for the rest of the season.
Quick Stats:
FPI Rank – No. 48
Offensive Efficiency: No. 73 overall
Defensive Efficiency: No. 77 overall
Special Teams Efficiency: No. 71 overall
Projected W-L – 6.6 wins – 5.5 losses
Chance of Winning Conference – 0.3%
Strength of Schedule Remaining – No. 64 overall
Here is how the Hokies are expected to finish their 2019 campaign, game-by-game.
Week 3 – Furman
FPI Chance of Victory: 93.9%
Projected Record: 2 wins, 1 loss
Notes: Furman is the second easiest opponent for Virginia Tech during their 2019 campaign according to the FPI. It is the second to last home game in a three-game home-stand. Following their match-up versus Furman, the Hokies’ will head into the BYE week.
Week 5 – Duke
FPI Chance of Victory: 66.7%
Projected Record: 3 wins, 1 loss
Notes: Virginia Tech returns after a BYE week to play their first ACC Coastal game, second ACC fixture overall. The Hokies’ are heavily favored against the Blue Devils, who rank No. 65 overall in the FPI Rankings.
Week 6 – @Miami
FPI Chance of Victory: 20.9%
Projected Record: 3 wins, 2 loss
Notes: Virginia Tech goes on the road to play Miami in what appears to be a very balanced matchup (Miami – No. 29 in the FPI). However, the projections have the Hurricanes as the heavy favorite and winning in 4/5ths of the scenarios. The loss would move Virginia Tech to 3-2 and 1-2 in ACC play.
Week 7 – Rhode Island
FPI Chance of Victory: 97.8%
Projected Record: 4 wins, 2 loss
Notes: A weird non-conference scheduled game against an FCS program with Rhode Island after back-to-back weeks of ACC play. Rhode Island is the easiest remaining opponent according to the FPI and Virginia Tech should know their strengths and weaknesses by this point of the season. A mid-October match-up against an FCS opponent. Doesn’t happen often.
Week 8 – North Carolina
FPI Chance of Victory: 46.7%
Projected Record: 4 wins, 3 loss
Notes: A rare underdog setting in Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Virginia. North Carolina is currently 2-0 after taking down South Carolina and Miami. Mack Brown has morphed the projections of the FPI, as Virginia Tech was once the heavy favorite, and now has a major stake in the ACC Coastal. Virginia Tech is expected to loss the game by thin margins. The two are separated by 9 spots in the FPI Rankings. A loss would move the Hokies to 1-3 in the ACC Standings, essentially knocking them out of any hopes of going to the ACC Championship Game in only the 7th game of the season.
Week 10 – @Notre Dame
FPI Chance of Victory: 10.4%
Projected Record: 4 wins, 4 loss
Notes: Notre Dame is one of two ranked opponents on Virginia Tech’s 2019 schedule. They current boast the No. 7 in the AP Top 25 poll and the No. 7 team according to the FPI Rankings. There’s no point in sugar-coating this game. The Fighting Irish are heavy favorites at home against the Hokies.
Week 11 – Wake Forest
FPI Chance of Victory: 61.3%
Projected Record: 5 wins, 4 loss
Notes: Four ACC matchups remain, two at home, two on the road. Wake Forest comes to Lane Stadium as underdogs as the Hokies’ are expected to win the fixture. A win gets Virginia Tech over the .500 threshold and keeps the bowl eligibility alive. Virginia Tech improves to 2-3 in the ACC.
Week 12 – @Georgia Tech
FPI Chance of Victory: 67.3%
Projected Record: 6 wins, 4 loss
Notes: Georgia Tech is going through a tumultuous first year under Geoff Collins at this point of the season, according to the FPI. While there are signs of encouragement, the move from a triple-option offensive scheme to spread hasn’t been kind to the Yellow Jackets in the Wins-and-losses column. Virginia Tech gets to the benchmark of the post-season with 6 wins and improves to .500 in the ACC with 3 wins and 3 losses.
Week 13 – Pittsburgh
FPI Chance of Victory: 67.3%
Projected Record: 7 wins, 4 loss
Notes: A three-game win streak? Virginia Tech is beginning to look very solid heading into Bud Foster’s final game as the Defensive Coordinator of the Hokies. Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech were off-brand last season as the Panthers had a historic run performance against the long-time coordinator. It’s the final game in Lane Stadium and the FPI is backing the Hokies. A 7-4 overall record and 4-3 in the ACC.
Week 14 – @Virginia
FPI Chance of Victory: 29.0%
Projected Record: 7 wins, 5 loss
Notes: The 15-year streak finally ends, according to the FPI. Virginia is heavily favored by many metrics that suggest they will continue to be an AP Top 25 team and in contention for the ACC Coastal all season long. Bud Foster has his farewell game in the Commonwealth Cup, but it doesn’t look promising for the Hokies. A win would give the Cavaliers their first win in the rivalry since November 29, 2003 – Exactly 16 years since their last win. The Hokies move to 4-4 in the ACC.