(Bloomberg Opinion) — The government crisis German may or may not cost her her position on chancellor Angela Merkel. But it is much more likely to claim that the vice-chancellor.
Olaf Scholz, German minister of Finance and member of parliament for Ms. Merkel, is the victim the most obvious of the surprise vote of the social democrats at the head of the party last weekend, during which two leftists have been elected co-leaders of the party. This unexpected result has destabilized the ruling coalition of the SPD with the christian democrats of Angela Merkel and could even lead to a real crisis in the government.
Scholz had been the favorite in mind. As the results were announced on 30 November, his face has become ashen. Moderate considered conservative within the SPD, he had set his career goals to the chancellery. This has always been unlikely, given the apparently unstoppable SPD. But in the polls, he has exceeded some opponents conservative potential.
One of the reasons for his popularity with the electorate in general is that Scholz was deliberately given a ball and a chain around his ankle called the ” zero black “. The scratch black is the lingo German for a balanced budget. But it is more than that : it is also a creed of correctness of tax adopted by the centre-right of the country. These days, the christian democrats, with a consciousness of itself praiseworthy, rejoice that the zero black is their “fetish”. In contrast, the deficits are supposed to be the left-handed and irresponsible.
Scholz wanted to prove to them that they were wrong. Former mayor of Hamburg who has made a career selling his own gloom as a euphemism hanseatic, he became a strong advocate of the zero black. Again and again, it has dégrané the critical domestic and foreign, from Brussels to the IMF via the ECB, and insisted on the fact that Germany would not move. Its accounts this year will show a surplus; the budget for the next year (luckily adopted on the eve of the surprise of the leadership of the SPD) will be balanced.
Scholz and his co-candidate had made three commitments to the members of the SPD. Clinging on to zero black, they would hold the political center in a general election. Serving the coalition with the conservatives in Merkel, they would prove that the SPD is trustworthy. And in doing both, they could save the party.
But Scholz has not noticed how the base of the party was livid. A bit like the british labour party under the leader of the opposition paleo-marxist Jeremy Corbyn, or the supporters of us senator Elizabeth Warren, many German social democrats come to brown to the left. During the discussions of leadership, even Scholz is found to call for a wealth tax, that it considers to be privately unenforceable. The members of the party have not purchased his late conversion. When the elites of the SPD has openly leaded to Scholz, the rank and file became sadder still. Therefore, they opted for two left-handed hitherto obscure, Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans.
Fearing the kind of internal conflict for which the SPD is known, Esken and Walter-Borjans are now laced to offer an olive branch to Scholz. They can not imagine why he should have to leave his post as Finance minister, they said, almost convincingly, on a television talk show.
At the same time, Esken and Walter-Borjans must now navigate the white water of politics. They had ran on the promise to leave the coalition with the conservatives in Merkel. This would be a long process in Germany, and politically risky for the SPD. The party, therefore, must first be perceived as a country which seeks good-faith negotiations with its coalition partners.
Exactly what the SPD is going to do is at a party congress this weekend. But Esken and Walter-Borjans have already referred to three changes : the increase in the minimum wage, the increase in the price of carbon in the German legislation pending on the climate change, and, above all, the burial of the zero black to make way for a windfall of investment, worth about half a billion euros over a decade.
You see the problem for Scholz. How is he supposed to take shelter in these coalition negotiations, as a framework, a social democrat and minister of Finance black-zero ? Even if the block of Angela Merkel agreed to put an end to the zero black (and that is unlikely), Scholz could he continue in his job, now spend freely, as if nothing had happened?
To save his credibility, he may decide to fall on his sword. What would that mean for German politics? After all, in addition to its rigidity on the zero black, Scholz has recently reported the flexibility in another controversy, suggesting that it could, under certain conditions, accept a joint system of deposit insurance for banks in the euro area. (Even then, he managed to hide the devils in the details.)
The answer is: This is not clear. If the coalition survives, another social-democrat prendrala the place of Scholz. This person might be more open towards the european partners of Germany. But Merkel and her conservatives would always be there as chaperones, so the change might not even be noticeable.
And if the coalition fails, the tories will probably remain in a minority government, at least for a certain time. They would then all departments, and the finance would go to a falcon. With or without Scholz, Germany is not yet ready to move.
To contact the author of this story: Andreas Kluth to [email protected]
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Timothy Lavin at [email protected]
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the drafting committee or of Bloomberg LP and its owners.
Andreas Kluth is a member of the editorial board of Bloomberg. He was previously editor-in-chief of the Handelsblatt Global and editor for The Economist.
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